The peak of the novel coronavirus pandemic in India has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown along with strengthened public health measures. Hence, it may now arrive around mid-November, according to a study.

India may have insufficient Isolation and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds and ventilators during this period, the study suggests.

The study conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has said that nationwide lockdown imposed in March shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days. However, ICMR has clarified that the study does not reflect its official position.

It adds that this helped lower the number of COVID-19 infections by 69 to 97 percent, which gave authorities time to shore up resources and infrastructure.

In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 percent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed.

However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83 percent less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures.

With sustained government steps at increasing the infrastructure and different pace of epidemic in different regions, the impact of unmet need can be reduced. If the coverage of public health measures can be increased to 80 percent, the epidemic can be mitigated, the researchers stated.

According to the model-based analysis for COVID-19 pandemic in India, with the additional capacity which has been built up for testing, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown period, the number of cases at the peak would come down by 70 percent and the cumulative cases may come down by nearly 27 percent.

In terms of COVID-19 mortality, approximately 60 percent deaths were prevented and one-third of this mortality prevention is attributed to the reduction in unmet need for critical care as a result of the intervention, the analysis showed.

On June 9, the Union Health Ministry said that COVID-19-related health infrastructure in the country has been strengthened with the availability of 958 dedicated COVID-19 hospitals with 1.6 lakh isolation beds, 21,614 ICU and 73,469 oxygen supported beds.

Also, 2,313 dedicated COVID Health Centres with 1.3 lakh isolation beds, 10,748 ICU beds and 46,635 oxygen supported beds have also been operationalised. Moreover, 7,525 COVID Care Centres with 7.1 lakh beds are now available to combat COVID-19 in the country.

The ventilators available for COVID beds are 21,494, the ministry had said, adding that order of 60,848 more ventilators has been placed.

India witnessed a record spike of 11,929 cases on June 14, pushing India’s COVID-19 caseload to 3.2 lakh. The death toll rose to 9,195 with an increase of 311 fatalities, according to the Union Health Ministry data.

India registered more than 10,000 cases for the third day in a row and is the fourth worst-hit nation by the COVID-19 pandemic.